ORoyals roster projection: Pre-free agent edition

This will of course be shaken up if/when the Royals pick up random free agents when the FA market opens up on Friday. Before I begin, here are some highly bookmarkable links for you: the list of MLB free agents, and Minor League free agents.

Now, here's who I think we'll be seeing in Omaha next year, at least to start. The usual caveat applies: I'm not an expert, and I'm preemptively labeling this post with "eating my words" for when this roster is totally wrong.

Starting rotation:
Carlos Rosa
Brandon Duckworth (gets placed above Cortes solely b/c of seniority)
Dan Cortes
Jose Capellan
Matt Wright

Duckworth, Wright and Capellan are ultimately roster filler. I'd love to try Wright as a long reliever but there's currently not enough starting pitching depth to test that theory. Cap is a decent pitcher but has never quite been able to crack it in the Majors because of a lack of movement in his fastball. However, no AAA team would suffer from having them on the roster, and of course Duckworth is good for a handful of spot starts in the event of an injury.

**Note: Roman Colon can be used effectively as a starter if any of the 5 on this list are not retained or if Cortes starts the season at AA again (not entirely sure why that would happen, but it could). Colon showed the ability to throw a lot of innings when he had to start games last year, often going deeper into games than some of the regular starters. However, I’ll also list him as a possible reliever, because he can be either according to the team’s needs.

BULLPEN:
Devon Lowery should start the year at Omaha; his September performance showed he has the ability to strike batters out, but he still gave up too many hits in limited appearances. He’s not quite ready for the Majors and will spend part of next season dominating AAA batters.

Greg Atencio, who was promoted from AA NWArk late in the 2008 season, will start the season at Omaha this time around. He’ll again serve as a durable middle reliever, and maybe even see a little time in the Majors later in the season.

Brad Salmon had a rough 2nd half of ’08 after being thrown into a starter’s role for which he wasn’t fit. If he gets to go back to the pen full-time he’ll be OK but probably won’t be first in line for a callup if KC has a need in their bullpen.

MIDDLE INFIELD
Because the Blue Jays claimed SS Angel Sanchez in November, the Omaha middle infield will be even more full of holes than before – and I didn’t think that was possible. Unless Dayton Moore makes some moves here, Omahans may be stuck watching Josh Labandeira and Gookie Dawkins butcher everything that comes their way again. Throw Dave Matranga into that mix as well, although Matranga is the most talented of this trio of filler.

CORNER INFIELD:
Kila Ka’aihue will likely anchor 1st base for at least the start of the year. On days he needs to take off, Mike Stodolka can come in from the outfield to fill in. This could change depending on how Dayton Moore handles Billy Butler, who is not out of options.

Third base is more up in the air, as stud Mike Moustakas isn’t going to be ready for AAA for a while yet. Expect to see 3b manned by a revolving door of fill-ins like the middle IF trio mentioned above, and even catcher-cum-utility man Brayan Pena as needed.

OUTFIELD:
The Royals will stick with Chris Lubanski in the outfield, but only because they have to. As soon as a different option comes along, the team should cut ties with Lubanski, who has been a pretty big disappointment after being the team’s #1 draft pick in 2003. I think Shane Costa will return, because his late-season injury problems will chase away any teams that might have otherwise wanted him. Mike Stodolka and Damon Hollins will probably return, but again it’s just out of necessity and a lack of OFs in the lower minors who are ready to move up to Triple-A.

CATCHER:
Brayan Pena has been added to the 40-man roster, and Matt Tupman was removed from it, a sensible move given Tupman’s lack of power, failure to develop throughout his 20s, and recent injury history. Pena will likely see more of the starts in ’09, but the two will continue to share duties. If one is hurt, the club can bring up someone like Demaso Espino from AA.

Final thoughts before the real O-Day

I can’t tell any of you to do anything; I’m just a kid with a computer. But if I could call something “required reading,” the 2008 baseball edition from the KC Star might be it. It’s pretty much a full evening’s worth of reading to finish getting us all primed for the Best Day of the Year. I am seriously in love with the Star; I really think we as Royals fans have some fantastic, insightful, thoughtful, daring writers (which Rany* covered pretty masterfully here).

I grew up with a typical small-town paper (not always very good journalism) with a painfully bad sports section. I mean…really bad. I was misquoted and misattributed quite a few times, and I was only a minor player on one team (golf); I can’t imagine how many times this happened to big shot, four-sport kids. A lot of times, reading the wrap-ups made me wonder if the sports guy had watched the same game as I had. I worked for this paper as a carrier for five years, and I never came to appreciate their style of “journalism.” But what that paper’s sports section gave me was a greater appreciation for anyone who is better. So I thank heavens that the Star is available online for my daily Royals fix.

*By the way, I noticed that Rany’s header mentioned that he fully endorses David Cook on American Idol because he’s a Royals fan. I made that exact proclamation last week when my roommate and I watched Idol. “Oh my gosh, is that a Royals hat?!? I liked this guy somewhat before, but I LOVE him now!” And yes; I watch Idol every week, and I love it. Don’t judge me.

I’m having a hard time believing the real baseball season is finally here. No more Spring Training games, no more wondering if the stats our boys put up are reflections of who they really are as players, or if they’re doing well (or poorly) because “it’s only spring.” This is great. The Royals website has replaced the countdown to O-Day with a posting of Monday’s probables (which I always mentally pronounce as pro-bah-blays, like the Spanish pronunciation), and we can now finish counting in terms of hours and minutes, not months and days. Major League’s finest pitchers (and Odalis Perez) are gearing up to throw the beginning of a new era, or the continuation of past success, or the end to mockery from failures long gone.

Which all means I should probably get around to sharing some predictions for individual Royals, which I will try to do in a readable manner while I’m watching Davidson and Kansas. (I always multi-task to some extent, even if one of the “tasks” is listening to music*. I really hate the few activities that don’t allow multi-tasking, because I have all kinds of things to accomplish and enjoy, and not a terribly large number of hours in which to do everything.) In one of my NCAA pools (for which there was a five- umm, matchstick, not dollar, entry fee, my Final Four is intact, but in the other one with the same matchstick entry fee my Big XII homerism cost me a slot in the Top 3 with Texas’ loss to Memphis today. I’m not a big time gambler, or obsessive better or anything, but I like to come away from this tournament with some number of dolla—matchsticks.

*Current musical obsession: RENT, in preparation for seeing it live for the first time. As much as I love the movie, I’m sure the stage version will be a million times better. But the songs are all soooooo catchy, so I can listen to them pretty much any time.

Thoughts on some of our pitchers:
Gil Mehce – This guy can’t escape big off-season questions and doubts. Last year it was “$55 million – for him? Are you kidding me?” and this year it’s “Is Meche a one-hit wonder or is he worthy of all five years of his contract?”
I think he can be. Eric J Seidman, using his SP Effectiveness System, ranks Gil Meche as a true ace in his Sabermetric Year in Review of the Royals.

“In my system, to be a #1 SP in the AL one needs to score a +47 or higher, and Meche scored a +47 on the nose. At least the first year of that 5/55 paid off.”

At some point a few weeks ago, I realized how much I missed watching Meche’s curveball. I loved the nights when that pitch was on; those pitches are why the DVR remote has the Replay button. It’s why we use words like “nasty” in the pitching vocabulary. And it’s why I think Meche will keep earning the big paychecks this year.

Zack Greinke – Another dearth of questions. Does he have it together? Can he give us a complete season as a starter? Can we trust him?

Yes, yes, yes.

I really don’t like putting down specific numbers before a baseball season. I’m not an expert; I’m just a passionate fan. I don’t have Bill James’ brains, I don’t have fancy ways of projecting anything for the entire season ahead. The season is long, the variables are abundant, the unknowns are countless. But I’m willing to put the number twenty on the table for Greinke this season. There’s no reason this year isn’t his year, and I’m perfectly comfortable discussing the possibility of “Zack Greinke, 20-game winner.”

My favorite, Brian Bannister – I have loved every word that has been written about Brian the Brain this winter (including a piece in the Star’s baseball edition today!). It makes for such great drama, the way the numbers he studies so heavily are the very things that could deter him from more success like he had in 2007. As much as I love him, I'd rather see him at #3 than #2 in the rotation. But I still think he can put up 14-15 wins.

Luke Hochevar – I’d be shocked (like, jaw on the floor) if he spent more than 8-10 weeks in Omaha this year. He seems to be making that last bit of progress into big-league ready, and based on what I’ve read about his mental makeup, he might dominate in AAA by sheer force of will, and make the front office call him up. I will enjoy watching him while we have him in Omaha (Don’t forget to come to the season opener this Thursday!), but I’m not anticipating seeing him there for long.

Joakim Soria – He’ll continue to do his thing, and people will continue to suggest moving him into the rotation. I’m really hoping and praying that some other reliever (Ramirez maybe?) shows the ability to be a closer, so Soria could be eased into a starter’s role. I’d love to see his 4-pitch arsenal unleashed for more than 1-2 innings at a time.

Random Matt Wright mention, just because I can. He had better make the Majors.

Now, about that offense:
Alex Gordon – (WAIT! Side note: Kansas JUST held on to beat Davidson to advance to the Final Four. Why was it this close? Goodness, I was scared that my Final Four would be reduced to three there in my bracket whose Four was still whole.) I guess the question about Gordon isn’t whether he’ll perform, but whether he can be the “face of the Royals.” To me, that’s a silly thing to question. He was the face of the Huskers; he was the face of the Royals in last year’s season previews. No matter what his personality, he’ll still be that face as long as his bat does what we all figure it will do and his defense is the way we have always expected it to be.

Billy Butler – I’m pumped for him. He’ll rake; more than 25 homers wouldn’t surprise me. The defense will still suck, but I don’t even care at this point. That is all.

David DeJesus – This will be the hardest DDJ will have to work for approval since the aftermath of Beltran’s departure. He ought to deliver; I’m hoping to see his OBP in the .360s and his batting average much closer to .300. Steals will be another thing I’ll be watching for from DeJesus, and I really want him to far exceed his career best of 10 (from last year). I’d love to see him swipe 20, actually.

Side note: I love all the attention Joey Gathright has been getting this spring. Doesn’t he look like a completely different player this year than he did when he first came over from the Halo Rays? I love how Hillman and Kuntz are making it so that he is not a guy who is fast but has nothing else to offer.

(Again, I'm preemptively labeling this with the "Eating my words" tag, in case this all goes wrong.)

I would love to do more, but my status as a successful (Dean’s list, baby!) full-time student rests in my ability to occasionally leave the computer and study. As per local custom, I’ll leave you with some links. former Royal catcher Benito Santiago was allegedly part of a cocaine ring!

JoePo Q&A with Rob Neyer.

HAPPY (real) OPENING DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

By popular demand: 2008 predictions Part I

Warning: tons of unbridled optimism and possibly irrational enthusiasm follows.

By "popular demand," I mean one person -- reader Matt asked to see some predictions, and he also called me the Royals' number one female blogger, so here I am. At times, I feel like I just want to be a regular fan and watch the games to figure out how 2008 will go, but this is much more fun.

Team predictions - individual player predictions will come in Part II:

Team W-L
I think that, when a ballclub is in a rebuilding phase, it's only realistic to expect a 4-5 game improvement over the previous season's W-L record, so the safe prediction to make would be 74-88. But I don't want to be safe. This is my blog, so I can make wild predictions if I want to.

With the addition of Trey Hillman, and all the other things you've already read 100 times this off-season, I don't see why the Royals can't have a bit of a runaway season. I'm not saying they'll contend, but I'm saying I'd be disgusted with another last-place finish, and not entirely surprised with a 3rd place finish.

(Side note: Wooo! The Huskers just beat Oklahoma thanks to a walk-off home run by Craig Corriston. Incidentally, I just learned in this post of Rany's that the phrase "walk-off" was popularized because of the Royals.)

So if I want a 3rd-place finish, I suppose the Royals would have to win about 80 games, so I'll go with 80-82 as my official prediction.

----****A lot of time elapsed here, when the rest of my family arrived, and we had supper, basketball, church, and Wii time. I'm back.****-----

Team OBP
Well, I have officially drunk the Trey Hillman Kool-Aid. (That happened the day he was hired. It was delicious.) Well, that, and I am a fan of OBP anyway, and not at all a member of the "Home runs or bust!" mentality shared by a lot of other young fans. I dig long at-bats, and can sit patiently while Tony Pena, Jr. draws a walk. Okay, make that...I could sit patiently if that happened. I'm going to look for a team OBP of around .340.

Team ERA
Yuck, I don't want to do this in the slightest. I can't imagine it changing too much from last year, given all the questions surrounding our 4-5 spots and what will happen to the bullpen vacancies created by Riske's departure and Greinke's return to the rotation. As a staff, KC put up a 4.48 ERA last year, and while I hope it doesn't go up, I can't see it going too far down. Let's go with a 4.40.

Random tidbits:
Complete games thrown by KC pitchers: Four.
Different pitchers used in the 4-5 slots: Eleven
Number of lineups used: 123
Representative in the All-Star Game: Billy Butler and/or Zack Greinke. Why not two?
Better at home or away: Home, but not by much
Better before or after the Break: After
Number of former Royals pitchers to earn wins or saves against KC: Five? (Ed. note to self: What the heck kind of question was that?)

I'm preemptively labeling this post "eating my words," because I pulled a lot of it out of thin air, and everything I've ever guessed is wrong (see: Madness, March. More awful predictions coming...soon. Expect some starry-eyed projections for B&OT favorite Brian MANnister, and at what dates I think certain Omahans will be called up. Also probably something about Matt Wright, just because I can.

Eating my words -- sort of; the Husker edition

After Nebraska football's win over Iowa State a few weeks ago, it was entirely possible that the team would not win another game all season. Things were looking pretty grim at Memorial Stadium and around Husker Nation. The team hit the road after that ISU game, and fell pathetically to Missouri. They pulled out an ugly home loss to Oklahoma State, which led up to the dramatic firing of NU Athletic Director Steve Pederson. Many fans hoped that the naming of Tom Osborne as interim AD would help the Huskers manage a home win against Texas A&M last Saturday, but it didn't work that way.

The offense has incurred a lot of stupid penalties, like QB Sam Keller's tendency to earn delays of game. The offense has turned the ball over a depressing number of times, and the weary defense never earned any takeaways of their own.

It has been sad.

This weekend, the Huskers hit the road to take on the #19 Texas Longhorns. I'm not going to lie, I was not very optimistic about the Huskers' chances against their Big XII rivals; Texas was favored to win by 21 points. I wasn't sure how this game would turn out. I saw several possibilities -- I figured today's game could be a massacre, a blowout, an embarrassment...I saw a number of potential outcomes for Nebraska, but I was not hopeful that "win" was one of them. I told some of my friends this, but I added that I would be thrilled if I had to eat my words today.

This is me eating some of my words, but not all of them. Texas ended up winning today, but Nebraska was a team of which I was proud today.

Today's Huskers looked like they actually belonged on the same field as their ranked opponents. Though they really never started any drives with good field position, they marched; they made big numerous big plays for the first time all season. The defense showed they could do something besides leave giant gaps for the opponent to exploit, and finally used an aggressive blitz approach which has been missing all season.

Nebraska's drive at the end of the 1st half had me jumping up and down for joy. Despite inexplicably burning all of their timeouts early in the half, the Huskers forged their way down field to take a 10-7 lead with under a minute left in the half. For the first time since the season opener against Nevada, I was watching my team play like winners. They lost none of that momentum coming out of halftime, and pounded Texas with another touchdown to start the third quarter.

I think the Huskers got a little tired around the end of the 3rd, and when Texas scored their first touchdown -- their previous 3 scores had been field goals -- the Blackshirts just ran out of steam. That blitz which had worked so spectacularly in the first half started to turn on Nebraska, but such is the nature of a blitz.

I'm not pissed off about this loss like I have been the last three games. In the Mizzou, OSU, and A&M games, there were guys on the field in Nebraska uniforms, but I was sure it was not an actual football team. Today, the Huskers showed up, and played a tough game. I would call it a battle. Not a blowout, not an embarrassment, not a massacre. Good game, guys.

Final score:
Texas - 28
Nebraska - 25

Eating my words: The 2007 Edition

I am the first to admit that I'm an idiot. That is not the kind of claim I make proudly, nor is it the kind of statement I'll make without some factual evidence to back it up. So, for proof, let's look at all the times this season (plus part of last off-season) I've had to eat my words on this blog. Behold:

Gil Meche: I was not sure what I thought of this "Meche" fellow:

Not sure how I feel about this one. This seems to be some big talk for an up-and-down pitcher who's never been in the spotlight before. For $11m a year, he'd better live up to some of that talk. For the moment, I'm still "meh" on him, and that's sad. I want to put all my trust in Dayton Moore, but something about Meche's acquisition and giant contract seems...off. Time will tell.

(From Feb. 17)

In reality, Gil was a quality starter. Maybe he wasn't an "ace" by most ballclubs' standards, but we aren't "most ballclubs." We needed a #1 pitcher like Meche to get us started. He did his part, starting 34 games for a total of 216 IP and a 3.67 ERA. His win-loss record is in no way indicative of his talent as a pitcher, and I'm confident that next year's numbers will be better there.

EDIT: So the problem with being somewhat social is that sometimes my friends come over and interrupt me from writing (the nerve!). The end result is that I publish posts with blanks where Gil Meche's stats need to go. My bad; it's all fixed now, I think.


The Cleveland Indians:
I thought for sure I posted about them before the season started, but apparently I did not. However, I am an honest woman, so I'll confess: I disagreed with baseball analysts who picked Cleveland to win the AL Central. And here they are with a chance to win the entire AL. Color me wrong.

The endurance of Royals starters:
Around the beginning of the season, I stated with great confidence that a number of Royals starters could -- nay, WOULD -- pitch complete games:

Could any of them go the distance...? My answer: a definite YES. Gil Meche and Zack Greinke will both have complete game wins before the All-Star break. I think that [Odalis] Perez could do it too, but it will take him a little longer.

Ha! None of those fellows gave the team a complete game. In fact, only once did a Royals player go all the way: Brian Bannister on August 17. For the record, I was correctly excited about his acquisition.

So there you have it: scientific proof that I can, in fact, be a complete idiot. But it happens to the best of us; even the great Joe Posnanski (who, if you didn't catch this sooner, is blogging again!) does this occasionally. It happens. But the way I see it, things like this create some amount of job security for sports writers.

If stats were the sole indicator of how a baseball team or well-paid new pitcher would perform, then why play? The Yankees would win every World Series, Paul Byrd would not have started over C.C. Sabathia, and Gil Meche would not have scored the big-money contract that made him the Royals' ace. That's the beauty of baseball, though. No matter what happens, and no matter how many games we've seen, and no matter how much we think we know, we can always be proven wrong. Every team and every game provide some writer the opportunity to make a bold prediction, and the opportunity to have his words fed back to him after the game. And even if it means looking like an idiot after almost every prediction I make, I wouldn't trade that beautiful mystery of baseball for anything.