Bottom 10: The Royals and OBP

Leaderboards are fun...I could look at Top 10s all day. (Related side note: Top 10 of Everything is a book I'd buy every year if I could afford it. It's fascinating stuff, and always random, which suits me well.)

But I am a Royals fan, and Royals fans have no business hanging around Top 10s. Royals fans are better suited to Bottom 10s, because our GM insists on signing players who rack up all the wrong numbers.

The Bottom 10 in OBP among all regular MLB nonpitchers (2008 salary)

#10: Jose Guillen - .300 ($12 million)
#9: Corey Hart - .300 ($0.4 million)
#8: Yuniesky Betancourt - .300 ($1.6 million)
#7: Kevin Kouzmanoff - .299 ($0.4 million)
#6: Mike Jacobs - .299 ($0.4 million)
#5: Freddy Sanchez - .298 ($4.2 million)
#4: Carlos Gomez - .296 ($0.4 million)
#3: Bobby Crosby - .296 ($3.6 million)
#2: Jeff Francoeur - .294 ($0.5 million)
#1: Michael Bourn - .288 ($0.5 million)

Drink up, Royals fans. We own two of the 10 worst on-base players in all of the Majors, and Moore has been publicly salivating over another of them (Francouer) since he became our GM.

Nothing more to add; just know that I am heaving a deep sigh as I type this. 2009 is not going to be very fun.

Birthday cake, Royals style

So, it is my birthday.

Last year on my birthday, I was at Rosenblatt to watch Scott Elarton give up 3 2-run homers in the first inning, and a solo shot in the 2nd. I don't think I need to say this, but the O-Royals went on to lose that one. Pretty miserable present, right? But that was also the day that Kansas City exploded for 17 runs and Billy Butler had 6 RBI in the first two innings.

I have always had the thought in my head that Kansas City loses on my birthday, but I'm never actually around to watch the games because my family is really big into fireworks so maybe they've won more July 3 games than I've perceived. Maybe I just remember the losses more, but the wins are actually there. RetroSheet to the rescue*!!

*What in the hell did sportswriters do without RetroSheet, Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, etc.? Seriously. I can't go an hour without rushing to one or more of these sites to chase down verification on some thought or statistical inquiry. I know a lot of people don't use these amazing resources, because I still hear incredibly unfounded complaints, inane comparisons, and flatout falsehoods about every team and player under the sun.

As I started to go through the boxes from my birthdays each year, I wondered to myself where I got the idea that the team always lost on my birthday. They were right around .500 for a few years, but then went on an incredible stretch from 1995 to 2002 (inclusive) where they lost every birthday game, then won in '03, then lost three straight years. That brings us back to last year's tea party, which sounded like an awesome game but I was too busy watching Omaha get slaughtered. Yikes.

Overall, the Royals are 6-13 on July 3 in my life, with one off day. (Yes, I'm only 20. I don't want to hear it.)

Some random highlights:
1988 and 1990: Bo Jackson homered
1995: Household favorite Matt Stairs homered to contribute to Boston's win
1997: Royals did not play, which was probably for the better
1999: Mike Sweeney and Jermaine Dye both homered, but KC lost anyway
2005: Game called after 5 innings due to rain
2006: My brother Ryan was there, and called me after a few beers to tell how KC was beating up on Johan Santana. Royals lost 6-5.

So basically, uh...The Royals hate me. The end.

Lumsden in relief: a step in the right direction

I was a little surprised to see Tyler Lumsden's name beneath starter Matt Wright's name in tonight's O-Royals box score. The lefty Lumsden was used in relief only once last year, and all his appearances this year (before tonight) have been starts. However, they've pretty much been bad starts.

I'd love to tell you that I'm a saintly, ever-optimistic superfan, but there have been days where I see that Lumsden is the starter and my first thought is "automatic loss." That's horrible, but his numbers this year bear it out:
>12 hits/9 innings
5.83 BB/9 innings
WHIP of nearly TWO (1.95 before tonight)
and of course, the 7.33 ERA.

So to say the very least, it has been a bad season for Tyler Lumsden. I've always wondered where the cutoff is between "just a bad start" and "horrible season, release this guy immediately." I believe the midway point is a pretty good starting point; I have to assume that if Tyler was going to right the ship he would have started doing it by now. Instead, he was tossed in to mop up a mess that Wright made.

I was suprised for a few reasons:
1) I didn't know a move to the 'pen was coming for Lumsden (if tonight's game is an indication of his role for the 2nd half)

2) The Omaha rotation has been very shaken up lately, with Carlos Rosa and sometimes-starter Jeff Fulchino up and back down, and other roster moves, I figured the guys who have always been starters would continue to start until the rotation settled back down a bit. Roman Colon and Brad Salmon, generally relievers, have been making starts lately, but I don't know if that's permanent or just filling holes. But then that creates holes in the bullpen, especially after the release of Roberto Giron (about which I am still scratching my head).

Anyway, I don't like giving up on players but is it maybe time to do something with Lumsden? I guess moving him to the bullpen is OK - he was pretty decent tonight, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits in 5 innings. Ironically, those 5 innings were greater than his average IP for all his starts this season; he averages just 4.88 IP per start.

I continually feel grateful that the Royals got Dan Cortes in addition to Lumsden for MacDougal, so that trade stays on the positive side. (By the way, I really liked Sam Mellinger's evaluation of Dayton Moore's trades and signings. If you missed them, here are Part I and Part II.)

Anyway, I don't know if any of this even means anything. After all, it was only one relief appearance. But I am curious to see how Tyler will be treated for the rest of the season - will he be Starter Tyler Lumsden who sometimes relieves (as many minor league starters are), or Reliever Tyler Lumsden who used to start? And whichever title he gets...will he still be a Royal when he gets it? It is July now.

Moving on:
I have said before that when I get particularly upset, I bake cookies. Tonight's KC game...that's a cookie-baking situation. The bottom of the third was enough to drive a woman to drink, and drink heavily. I don't know whose fault it was that Mike Aviles didn't throw home on the cutoff from Jose Guillen. I don't think it was Aviles' fault, because his back was to the infield while he waited for the throw, and although he has many great qualities, he does not possess eyes in the back of his head. So whose job should it have been to tell him to throw home? Gordon? Olivo? Hochevar? I don't know.

And what was the deal with Guillen pretending to be a statue on that fly ball in the 2nd? Gathright had to run a looooong way over to that ball, and when the camera finally panned that far over, Guillen hadn't moved at all. LeFebvre and Splitt laid into Guillen pretty hard for that, and rightfully so. It was just bewildering. They brought up the point that if he's hurting so badly that he can't even cover his share of the outfield, he should suck it up and DH even though he hates DHing. I agree completely. Or if it wasn't the injuries that made him stand so still, what was it? Good thing Gathright made the play; that play would have made the SportsCenter stupid reel if it had plopped down so near Guillen and resulted in an inside-the-park homer.

Ugh. Such a stupid game, but before I go off to bake my anger-cookies, I have to ask:
Was Mark Teahen's homer hit with his grandmother's ash?

I wrote this song about Emil Brown...

Once upon a time (2007), I had this passionate, burning hatred for Emil Brown. I don't know how it started, or why it ran so deep. I know that a skilled wordsmith could point out how irrational it was for me to hate Brown, but I hated him all the same. One of my most joyous moments of the offseason was the Day of the Non-Tender. I was thrilled that KC was moving beyond Brown and his 62 RBI. (Seriously, I hated the argument that the team needed to retain Emil because he led them in RBI. That's just pathetic. No team should be led by a guy who only knocks in 62. Besides, RBI is flawed; go find a new argumentative stat.)

I don't think I was exactly jumping for joy (or, in the infamous words of my dad, "doing handsprings down the hallway") when the Royals signed Jose Guillen, but the more the season goes on, the more I'm finding myself liking Guillen. I bring this up now because Guillen's game-winning RBI was his 61st of the season, so he's pretty much done what Brown did in a whole season, but he got it done before the All-Boring Break. Oh, and since RBI is a stupid basis for an argument, have a host of other stats:

Guillen
Brown

Guillen has the upper hand in pretty much everything, except walks. (Although Brown only has 14 of those; it's not like he's a BB machine. Well, not that kind of BB. Someone at Royals Review asked tonight if Guillen should receive Brown's pellet gun as a "passing the torch" symbol. I voted YES.)

I don't care that Guillen has been running his mouth. Not at all. I was pretty peeved about his casual jog up the first base line on Wednesday night. I thought someone who is so quick to call out his teammates for not playing The Right Way should be busting his ass so his words have some meaning. I also think he made too many excuses for his horrid April.

But I still like him. I like that the Royals have someone who gets fired up about something. (I love Miguel Olivo for the same reason.)Like Craig said at Royals Authority, if the offensive production is there, I will take the tirades, the name-calling, even the occasional jog on a ground ball. That last part goes against everything I've always held dear and tried to teach the little ones about baseball; I've always been a "run hard on everything" kind of person. But if Guillen was being truthful about having groin and hip problems...well shoot, I'm willing to forgive. I like the kind of intensity that makes a man play through injuries, and I'm willing to cut him slack for that.

And for the record, I don't care what he says about the fans. Not all ballplayers love fans. I get that. I appreciate the players who are great with fans, but I no longer expect it because I know that Guillen isn't the only one who doesn't give a rat's ass about fans. Guillen might be one of the only ones to come out and say it, but he's not the only one who feels that way.

The All-Boring Break next week should provide a nice rest for those injuries (since it lasts approximately 8 years), and Jose can spend the 2nd half of the season talking all he wants, as long as his bat talks as loudly as his mouth, and as long as both of those are louder than Emil.

First O-Royals musings of 2008

The people above me are playing Rock Band again, so what follows is likely to be less than sane. It's hard to keep it together with that hollow, constant, inescapable a-rhythmic thudding going on. Also, I got a new keyboard ($1 from woot!) that is very tiny, which I guess means I'm obligated as a woman to think is cute, despite the lack of functionality its small size brings (see: poodle).

Thursday would have been Opening Day for the Omaha Royals, were it not for rain showers that day. So the team had O-Day on Friday, and a double-header yesterday. Those of you who have been around here a while probably remember that the O-Royals played what seemed like an ungodly number of rainout-caused doubleheaders last year, especially at the end of the season. It's good to be right back into that habit as we start the 40th Anniversary season.

I am trying to see if Trey Hillman's style will seep down into AAA at all. Thus far, we really haven't had the opportunity to even try any of the aggressive baserunning Trey has employed at the big league level, because everything Omaha has done is pretty non-strategic, as far as baserunning goes: doubles, triples, a couple of homers. I've noticed a bit of impatience at the plate -- in the first game, O-Royals swung at 7 1st pitches and 14 2nd pitches. Maybe it doesn't mean anything, but I'd love to see my boys take more pitches and drive every starter to higher pitch counts than they've forced so far (89, 89, 65 and 83 in four games).


While the offseason was happening, it felt like time was dragging, but once the season finally got here it feels like we haven't left. My favorite season ticket holders are back in their usual spots, the cotton candy guy still has his massive sideburns (yay!), the steps by the 3rd base dugout are still the best seats in the house, everyone cracks inappropriate jokes, and Angel Berroa still screams in our ears when we least expect it. It feels great to be back in action, and as soon as things settle down in terms of my actual work*, I hope to be able to give all of you non-Omahans some sort of feel of how the Royals' AAA prospects (and lifers) are doing.

*I still can't believe they actually pay us for this stuff. My job is the coolest! I get to sit right by the dugout, be as vocal of a fan as I can, be friendly to all the fans, and lead fans on to the field for various embarras--promotions. Seriously. How is that a job? I love every minute of it.

In the meantime, I have only a few things to offer:
-Former Royal Bobby Keppel has apparently shortened it to just "Bob." I don't like it.

- The O-Royals are averaging 3.31 pitches per plate appearance. I'd like to see a little bit more patience, so I'll be keeping an eye on that as time goes on. My unofficial count has Jason Smith with the most 1- and 2-pitch at-bats, but it's kind of working for him, as he's already collected 6 hits including a homer and a triple.

- Also, is it just me or does outfielder Brian Buchanan bear a striking resemblance to Dave Coulier, aka Uncle Joey from the show Full House? Oh crap I hope he doesn't read this...but surely he's been told that, right?

- Neal Musser has already given up more earned runs this young season than he did through part of July last year, because he surrendered a 2-run home run this afternoon (only one of the runs was earned).

- Roberto Giron is a heck of a reliever. I'm glad he survived Saturday's bitter cold (well, he thought it was cold and marveled at my choice in shorts and a tank top; apparently growing up in Nebraska gives one a far different idea of temperature tolerance than growing up in the Dominican Republic...) so I can continue to enjoy his work.

- I saw Shane Costa fall up some stairs on Friday night, and I wanted to share that, because I wasn't aware he had flaws.

Elsewhere in the world:
- The Ladies... want YOU to also be a Lady. If you happen to meet their standards.

- I don't mean to revel in someone else's misfortunes, but the Tigers are 0-6. However, I must take this time to blast Joe Morgan for yet another boneheaded thing he said on national television. As Detroit gave up the 8th and 9th runs to Chicago today, the boos from the Tiger home crowd were becoming very loud, and Morgan said "They should be booing."

You know, I don't care what the situation is; you DO NOT BOO the home team. What the hell, Joe Morgan? Every time I hear him call a game, I wish he had never gotten that TV work, because then people would remember him for his awesome playing career and not the fact that he is a mean, stubborn, awful announcer.

- I'm terribly disappointed in North Carolina for not being their usual UNC-ish selves, because I had picked them in multiple versions of my bracket in several pools that are for more than just the heck of it. But...go Big XII! Represent!

- Trey Hillman must love me, because the KC pitching rotation works out so I get to see Brian Bannister pitch in Kansas City on Tuesday! Of course, the forecast calls for a high of Garbage with a chance of Cancellation.

If you find yourself in Omaha today (Monday), be sure to come to Rosenblatt and enjoy some O-Royals action and some $1 hot dogs! (First pitch at 6:35)

By popular demand: 2008 predictions Part I

Warning: tons of unbridled optimism and possibly irrational enthusiasm follows.

By "popular demand," I mean one person -- reader Matt asked to see some predictions, and he also called me the Royals' number one female blogger, so here I am. At times, I feel like I just want to be a regular fan and watch the games to figure out how 2008 will go, but this is much more fun.

Team predictions - individual player predictions will come in Part II:

Team W-L
I think that, when a ballclub is in a rebuilding phase, it's only realistic to expect a 4-5 game improvement over the previous season's W-L record, so the safe prediction to make would be 74-88. But I don't want to be safe. This is my blog, so I can make wild predictions if I want to.

With the addition of Trey Hillman, and all the other things you've already read 100 times this off-season, I don't see why the Royals can't have a bit of a runaway season. I'm not saying they'll contend, but I'm saying I'd be disgusted with another last-place finish, and not entirely surprised with a 3rd place finish.

(Side note: Wooo! The Huskers just beat Oklahoma thanks to a walk-off home run by Craig Corriston. Incidentally, I just learned in this post of Rany's that the phrase "walk-off" was popularized because of the Royals.)

So if I want a 3rd-place finish, I suppose the Royals would have to win about 80 games, so I'll go with 80-82 as my official prediction.

----****A lot of time elapsed here, when the rest of my family arrived, and we had supper, basketball, church, and Wii time. I'm back.****-----

Team OBP
Well, I have officially drunk the Trey Hillman Kool-Aid. (That happened the day he was hired. It was delicious.) Well, that, and I am a fan of OBP anyway, and not at all a member of the "Home runs or bust!" mentality shared by a lot of other young fans. I dig long at-bats, and can sit patiently while Tony Pena, Jr. draws a walk. Okay, make that...I could sit patiently if that happened. I'm going to look for a team OBP of around .340.

Team ERA
Yuck, I don't want to do this in the slightest. I can't imagine it changing too much from last year, given all the questions surrounding our 4-5 spots and what will happen to the bullpen vacancies created by Riske's departure and Greinke's return to the rotation. As a staff, KC put up a 4.48 ERA last year, and while I hope it doesn't go up, I can't see it going too far down. Let's go with a 4.40.

Random tidbits:
Complete games thrown by KC pitchers: Four.
Different pitchers used in the 4-5 slots: Eleven
Number of lineups used: 123
Representative in the All-Star Game: Billy Butler and/or Zack Greinke. Why not two?
Better at home or away: Home, but not by much
Better before or after the Break: After
Number of former Royals pitchers to earn wins or saves against KC: Five? (Ed. note to self: What the heck kind of question was that?)

I'm preemptively labeling this post "eating my words," because I pulled a lot of it out of thin air, and everything I've ever guessed is wrong (see: Madness, March. More awful predictions coming...soon. Expect some starry-eyed projections for B&OT favorite Brian MANnister, and at what dates I think certain Omahans will be called up. Also probably something about Matt Wright, just because I can.

Tables about the Royals, inspired by Bill James

My big problem with Bill James books is that I can't read more than half a page without stopping and scribbling some random ideas, inspired by what I see in the book. Here are some Royals-related numbers, inspired by stuff I found in the Bill James Gold Mine.

Here's the Royals' 2007 record based on number of homers in each game:

A few random observations from this: In April, the team did better with no homers (2-8) than when they hit one (3-10). Also, John Buck seemed to homer a lot in losses. I believe all of his multi-home run games were ultimately losses (but I could be wrong; please correct me if I am!).

Of course, measuring anything home run-related with the Royals is pretty useless, since the team was last in the Majors in homers. Sorry for bringing that up again; I know we're all painfully aware of our team's shortcomings. So here are some things, as listed in the Gold Mine, in which the Royals were not last in '07: (Holy crap, blogger is NOT letting me make this as big as I want, so click on the table for the full-sized version)
And what good is knowing the worst at various things in the Majors without knowing who was best? (Again, click on the table for full-sized version. Sorry 'bout that!)
I'm astounded at the difference between first and last place in stolen bases. That's an area where I'm not only hoping; but expecting, an enormous improvement for the Royals this season. The team has stolen 21 so far this spring (led by Joey Gathright's 8), and has been caught 7 times.

Now on to some links:
- Rany's series on why now is a great time to be a Royals fan keeps getting better and better: #9 is Joakim Soria, or "the Mexican Zack Greinke", and #8 is the Voice, Denny Matthews.
- Barry Bonds is not planning on retiring. ...ummm, yep. Good luck with that, bud.
- JoePo gives a (free!) snippet from The Soul of Baseball, in case you haven't bought it yet. (Buy it!)
- Eric Seidman at Statistically Speaking has gone completely insane, and will liveblog Moneyball tomorrow. Yes, he's going to read a book, and blog about it chapter-by-chapter. But I heart Seidman, so I will read it.
- Speaking of StatSpeak, Mike Fast is leaving the blog.
- In Husker baseball news, Dan Jennings kicked the crap out of Arkansas. I know a lot of you aren't Nebraska fans, but you should know that former Husker coach Dave van Horn is now Arkansas' coach, so beating them feels particularly good. Not that I wish ill will on Coach van Horn; he's a great guy and all, but I like being reassured that we have moved on and can survive without him.
- Here are two stories about the Yankees visiting Virginia Tech for an exhibition game. I'm not a Yankees fan by any stretch, but I like this. Baseball does heal; even if those VT students will never feel normal or safe at school again, maybe they can scoot an inch closer to some kind of comfort, knowing the superstar Yankees feel for them and were moved enough by their tragedy to visit the way they did.

If you're here from RoyalBoard, Royals Nation, Royally Speaking, Royals On Radio, Etc., or anyone else who has graciously linked to me in the last two days...welcome! I hope you stick around. Check out the featured posts, or just hang out and help yourself to the Dr Pepper in the fridge.

Suddenly it is 2:30, so I should be off to bed.

This is getting over LaRue

All I knew about pitcher Roman Colon when he was traded to the Royals this summer was that he had punched a teammate earlier in the season. That kind of first impression is hard to shake, I suppose, even after I had met Colon and found him not to be a constant face-puncher. He never punched me, or anyone I know, in the face, and yet I still can’t shake the habit of recalling that incident (for which he just pleaded no contest) when his name is mentioned.

For me, the same concept applies to really really nice people in sports. I am aware that I let a lot of bad performances slide if the player producing them is a good person. I will defend players’ value to a ballclub based on personal merits (see Sweeney, Mike), and I had started to wonder where the line was. At what point would I admit that a good guy was a liability to his team; conversely, at what point would I accept someone with a shady past into the Royals family if he was a good enough player?

The answer to the first question became clear this past summer, as Jason LaRue – pretty well-known as a high quality human being – wore my patience to its thinnest whenever he dug in at the plate. I imagine that a solid 2008 campaign from Jose Guillen would provide the answer to the 2nd question. But back to LaRue, for old times’ sake, even though he has long since moved on to St. Louis, where he can battle the pitching staff for the team’s lowest batting average.

10 pitchers with higher BAs than LaRue in 2007 (minimum 60 ABs)












Every time I’d start to think about how much I felt sick when LaRue was up to bat, someone would tell me, “But he calls such a good game!” I don’t know that his bad numbers at the plate can not be completely justified by that fact. Consider that, on average, Royals position players averaged 9.6 Win Shares and regular MLB catchers averaged just over 12.

Anyway, I’ll leave poor Jason alone now, because I know he’s a swell guy. I had to dig at him one last time, because the Husker basketball team has put me in a spectacularly destructive mood. Better to string out someone’s awful batting stats than to punch a hole in my wall, no?

There's only one...

Well, my heart is a little heavy after the Royals' season ended in a loss to Cleveland, so I'd like to lighten the mood with a joke:

The New York Mets walk into a bar. They are free to go out and do as they please now, because they are not in the post season.

Ba-zing!

But seriously folks. The Mets concluded their late-season chokeshow with a big, big loss to Florida. Two and a half weeks ago, New York held a commanding lead in the NL East, and now they're heading home for the winter before October even starts. I would feel a little bit bad for them, except that they are one of my least favorite teams.

Meanwhile, in the still-undecided NL Wild Card race, Milwaukee is helping make my dreams come true, as they beat the barely-1st-place Padres 11-6. Colorado just hung on to beat Arizona 4-3, forcing a tie-breaking game with the Padres tomorrow. If they win that, I will look like a genius.

But if I look like a genius, I will be a very sad genius. Not sad that the Rockies are in the postseason, but sad because it will be 6 months before I get to see my Royals again (except for those in winter ball, plus spring training, and fan/player events). I still haven't heard exactly what Alex Gordon's injury was, but I hope the bouncing ball that hit his face stayed away from his eye and eye socket. I don't know a whole lot about Cleveland's Josh Barfield, but after Ryan and Denny reported that Barfield was the first to come to Gordon's aid after he was hit, I think I'm a fan.

Before today's game, I had a lot of wishes. Obviously I wanted a KC win. I hoped that Mike Sweeney would have a good day, and that if Mark "RS" Teahen got any at-bats, he'd do something splashy and memorable so that we (and he) could forget about some of the less attractive numbers he had at the plate this year: He struck out 127 times, and grounded into a team-high 23 double plays. His average was down about 5 points from last year. However, Teahen did a lot of good in his first season as an outfielder, and I hope fans can remember that when looking back on this season. In his 137 games this year, Teahen made only 6 errors, which really isn't bad for a guy playing an entirely new position. He had 17 outfield assists, which was 2nd only to Michael Cuddyer in the AL (he had 19).

Sweeney, regrettably, was 0-3 today. But the ovations he received from the crowd were really touching, and very loud -- I could hear them very well over the radio. I really wish I had gone through with potential plans to attend that game; how I would love to have been a part of the standing ovations that accompanied Sweeney's first AB and his curtain call after being replaced in the 7th. How adorable it must have been to see Sweeney running the bases with his two kids after the game!

I guess Sweeney's potential departure has distracted me from the fact that today was Buddy Bell's last game as the Royals manager. I'm completely OK with that. My negative feelings about his managerial skills aside, I do wish him the best. I hoped we could pull out one more win for Buddy, who managed the team through a lot of tumult in the front office and on the field.

I'd like to thank you all for your readership this season, and I hope you don't forget me over the offseason! I'll be complaining about trades again this year, and hopefully this winter's crop of acquisitions make me eat my words exactly the way Gil Meche did.

Off to do homework!

Oops...

...I've done it again.

Today, my "fun Royals fact" I shared with all who passed by my door was this:
"Brian MANnister is undefeated in Tuesday starts this season."

My bad.

Here are some more fun Royals facts that I did not find. By the way, this is my new favorite Royals blog.

This factoid was my favorite, as it sheds an ugly light on one of my least favorite Royals:

17 - Strikouts by Jason Smith this month….in 36 at-bats.

More to come later; the Royals are only in the 7th, and I don't want to say anything about a game in progress.

Score first; it works

After tonight's delightful win over the suddenly-last-place-again White Sox, the "Voice of the Burlington Bees," Randy Wehofer, mentioned that scoring first is a tried-and-true method for winning baseball games. Fortunately, he didn't word it that way, because if he had, I might have smacked him with a Big Dictionary O' Cliches.

Anyhoodle, I understood that the team who scores first generally walks off the field with a win, but I wanted to know how often, because I'm a silly-face with lots of studying to procrastinate. So I checked this bit of conventional baseball wisdom against the Royals' 2007 season so far (including tonight, where KC scored first and did indeed win).

In games where Kansas City scores first, they are 44-18, or a .710 WPC. Not too shabby. Royals opponents are 66-21 (give or take 1, because apparently I missed one somewhere) or a .759 WPC when they (the opponents) score first.

I'm going to try to extrapolate something from this, because I did the schedule-searching, so I should do something with it, no? Here's what I see:

1) The obvious conclusion: scoring first wins ballgames.
2) These number show that starting pitching had better be Dayton Moore's super-priority again this offseason. The bullpen has held up pretty respectably all season, so as long as starters don't yield runs to open ballgames, things should improve, right?
3) The Royals might not be the best team to explore when looking for numbers like this, because lets face it, they lose a lot. I think that's why I included number of wins and losses by opponents when they strike first.
4) The Royals came from behind to win more often than they blew early leads. (21 and 18, respectively.) It's a narrow margin, but it might be something, as Royals teams of the past few years are pretty famous for lying down and accepting loss once they fall behind.
5) If I'm dumb enough to do this at the end of next season, I hope to not have to make so many tally marks under the "KC loss..." headers on my scratch paper (yeah, scratch paper; I'm old school like that).

Random:
A classmate saw me unfurl a couple pages of complicated-looking tables of stats from Baseball Prospectus today, and asked what kind of crazy class required all those scary numbers. He didn't understand why I would own and study something like that for fun. Some people, let me tell you...

This post brought to you by the letter B

Brian Bannister is the Best Bargain in Baseball.

The last time I was this excited to watch Brian Bannister pitch, it was Independence Day and I was actually going to be at the game - a sad rarity for me. I was pumped to see Banny pitch in person again, as I had thoroughly enjoyed watching him play at the triple-A level. On that day, he got rocked for four runs in the first inning, and KC was never able to come back. Sad story, I know, but the worst that came of it was a grumpy Minda.

This time around, the implications for Bannister and all of Royals Nation are much greater. If Banny has an "off night" or even one "off inning" against C.C. Sabathia and the rest of the Tribe tonight, he could be dropped out of contention for AL Rookie of the Year honors. On the other hand, if he pitches in his best form, many more people will take notice of him as a legitimate contender. With Cleveland looking to hang on to their lead in the AL Central, people will be paying attention to their every game. So it stands to reason that if Bannister holds his own against Sabathia, then people -- even those at ESPN who HATE to acknowledge the Royals in any positive way, ever -- will pay attention to Bannister too.

Bannister, by the way, could be the Royals' best bargain in at least the last decade. Compare his season at his $380,000 salary to Daisuke Matsuzaka's similar season at his ludicrous $52 million for 6 years (approx $8.6 million per year).

Bannister:
12-8 on a losing team
3.46 ERA
32 games
191.1 innings pitched

Dice-K:
14-12 even with the loaded Red Sox lineup behind him
4.44 ERA
29 games
184.1 IP

Wouldn't it be fun if salary were a predictor of a player's performance? If it were, and if Bannister was paid as much as Dice-K, then my pseudo-scientific calculations tell me that Bannister would have zero losses, and would not have given up a run (earned or otherwise) all season. But I'd rather believe that Bannister is as amazing as he is because he's smart, talented and hard-working; not because of what he gets paid. All I know for sure is, I'm really excited to watch tonight's game...having a day off yesterday felt like an ETERNITY.

P.S. All this talk about Bannister is fueled by my desire to see him named AL RoY. He's my favorite Royals pitcher and I'd love to see him get some national recognition for his awesomeness.

Gil Meche wins, and Husker nation waits

I could have taken a test online while I listened to the Royals beat the Twins, but I decided three things:
1) The game would divide my attention too far away from the test*,
2) The test would take my attention too far away from the game, and
3) I'd rather fiddle with Gil Meche-related numbers.

It's not a secret that the Royals haven't scored many runs behind Meche this season. I noticed it back in April, and then there was a stretch in late May/early June where the team gave Gil a total of two runs in three starts. It's also not a secret that Meche hasn't won in a while, with his last win (prior to this afternoon's delicious victory) coming on July 20. That's an astonishing amount of time for a team's number one guy to go without a win, but the offensive numbers Kansas City put up behind Meche in that time span are quite telling: they only scored 2.3 runs per game in those nine straight losses. On the other hand, in all games this season that KC has won and Gil has started (not necessarily all Meche wins, but rather Meche starts), that average is 6.2.

I realize that this statistic does not factor in at all the pitcher himself. I know he has had a few rough outings this year, like his last start where his own two errors pretty much cost the Royals, and Meche himself, the win. And it also seems pretty obvious; the team scores more runs, the pitcher has better odds of winning. But I find it interesting how wide a gap there has been all season between KC run production in Meche's starts where KC wins, and run production in Meche starts that end in a loss.

As I mentioned, in games in which Meche starts and the Royals end up winning, KC is averaging 6.2 runs. But in Meche starts that end in losses, the average is drastically lower, at 2.5.

Today's Royals win felt fantastic. I realized this morning that I had forgotten what habitually losing felt like -- it's painful, and I get pretty mopey. My attitude, like that of many other good KC fans, has shifted noticeably. I expect wins now. Losing no longer feels so 'normal;'it sucks. I find it encouraging that the 7-game losing streak that just ended for the Royals was tied for the 2nd-longest of the season, because I still have streaks of 17 and even 19 games pretty fresh in my mind from the last few seasons. And most of you know this already, but today's win absolutely guarantees that KC will not lose 100 this year; that shameful reign is over.

One surprise that came out of the sweep by the Yankees was Neal Musser breaking his hand. When I read the headline, I thought for sure they were talking about the wrong guy. The Neal Musser I know is a very gentle human being, and wouldn't lash out like that. Then again, the Neal Musser I know dominated every batter he faced in AAA, and never gave up any runs about which to be angry.

And now, the previously promised shift into Husker football.
It has been said that Nebraska quarterback Sam Keller has only two speeds: walk and kill. This morning, he was irritatingly stuck on "walk" right in front of me while I was trying to hurry to class. Had it been anyone else on the UNL campus, I may have tried to worm my way around him and hustle on past, or maybe offered a verbal chastisement for walking so slowly (perhaps a "Boo! Boring! Walk faster!"). But Keller could probably crush my head with his bare hands, so I resigned myself to walking at his pace for a while. Besides, he may have been mentally preparing for this Saturday's big game against USC, and I do not want to risk doing anything to mess that up.

The anticipation around campus for the Nebraska/USC game has been intense. I don't think I've been this excited about a football game since Nebraska played Oklahoma in 2001. But it's crazy: all I have to say to any of my friends is, "Saturday!" and they will squeal with some sort of delight I don't think I can safely categorize. I'll be there, so look for me on ESPN!

* Hi Mom, don't worry! I'll get the test done!

A bit

My goodness, but it has been a while since I've written here!

I try to be a ray of optimistic sunshine, but when my Royals lose five straight they leave me with little to say. I have to take some advice from the greatest character from Bambi (Thumper!)..."If ya can't say nothin' nice, don't say anything at all!"

Well, that and I've been pretending to do homework. But I'm back now, and I'm trying to think of good things to think and say about my Royals.

Luke Hochevar might have been the one and only good thing about the series with the Yankees that has thankfully ended. If I never had to see another KC game against New York, that would be fantastic.

A lot of people like to ask me why I hate the Yankees. I'm not great at listing concrete reasons, because as most of you know, I'm an idiot. But the KC Star has been very helpful recently in outlining the historic reasons why every self-respecting Royals fan, or any fan of real baseball, should feel a deep hatred for the Evil Empire. Here's one from Sam Mellinger, and one from the great Joe Posnanski.

- David DeJesus has just claimed sole possession of the Royals record for most Hit By Pitch in one season with 19.

- I love Baseball Almanac, but I'm bitter at them for being so interesting and eating large chunks of my time. I wasted away a few hours this afternoon on pages like this list of baseball lists. It started when I was looking for cool quotes to share with my Bible study.

- Blogger is having a planned outage in 3 minutes, so I must go.

O-Royals wrapup, and Bannister for RoY

- Is it just me, or were the Omaha Royals really, really good this year? I talked to a lot of different types of people in Omaha this summer, and it seems like most people had no idea what the O-Royals were doing. People still see them -- and the Royals organization in general -- as some kind of joke. It felt like those of us who were at Rosenblatt every night were the only ones who realized what was going on.

The team finished at over .500 with a record of 73-71. Though they had major issues on the road (especially in June when their House was occupied by the College World Series), they posted a fantastic record of 45-27 at home.

And what a shame; those who weren't in on this fun year at the 'Blatt may never know this team that made me fall in love with AAA baseball. My e-friend Micah touched on this idea in her blog, and I've thought about it quite a bit myself. It's hard to think about right now, but I know that a lot of the guys I saw every day in Omaha are not going to be around anymore when I go back for another season as a promotions chick there. Some should be in the Majors, and some will have been traded. I don't know if I necessarily want a whole new crop of players; I rather liked the ones we had!

Take, for example, Mike Aviles. He should be in the Majors right now. And he's under the impression that the club doesn't like him. He should be with an organization that will give him a shot, and as far as I know he'll be a free agent this winter so he likely won't be around. How sad. Mikey batted around .300 for the whole season at Omaha, including 17 homers, and knocked in 77 RBI. I know I'm not the only person who thinks he's too good for the Minors; I've heard people who know baseball far better than I do say that Aviles should be in a KC uniform, not an Omaha one.

Speaking of people who were snubbed in this round of September callups, why won't KC give Matt Wright the chance to appear in the bigs for a while? Actually...never mind. Now that I really look at his numbers, I see how much he struggled in the 2nd half, although I still think he was an underrated part of an excellent Omaha rotation. He's the guy who can rack up strikeouts the way most Royals pitchers haven't been able to do the last few years.

I guess now is as good a time as any to finally share some highlights from the O-Royals 2007 home season, since Aviles and Wright each figured prominently in several of them. In no particular order:

April 29: Gathright's flight
No one has ever questioned the idea that Joey Gathright is fast. The sky is blue, Shaq is tall, Joey Gathright is fast. But on April 29, a hot Sunday afternoon, Gath showed that he's beyond fast; he's inhuman. Omaha had won three in a row against the Nashville Sounds, and was looking for a 4-game sweep. Omaha was down by one in the bottom of the 9th, and Gathright had made his way to second base with one out. Shane Costa hit a fly ball to medium-depth right-center that would have moved most runners to third, and...Joey scored. From 2nd. Center fielder Callix Crabbe (one of my favorite MiLB names of the year) made a pretty decent throw, but no outfielder's arm could stand up to a runner whose speed rivals that of light. Omaha went on to win that game in extras on a walk-off home run by Justin Huber. (OK, so that one was like 2 highlights in one. It was a good game to cap off a great series.)

July 14: 15 innings
I should have known better than to make plans around the O-Royals. I take full responsibility for this game going as long as it did. For whatever reason, this game against the Iowa Cubs went into extras in a 4-all tie. In the top of the 10th, Iowa had a bit of offense going, but Mike Aviles flashed some fantastic leather to start a double play to end that. The pitchers on both sides were impressive until the 14th, when Iowa got a runner on again with one out. Again it was Aviles with the heroic double play to keep it tied for the Royals. In a game that long, the crowd's energy waxes and wanes. In the 9th, everyone is excited, hoping their team can walk off with the win. In the 10th through 14th or so, people start getting tired. But when Omaha got some baserunners going in the fifteenth inning, the Rosenblatt crowd got excited again. Omaha loaded the bases for -- guess who! -- Mike Aviles. He pushed another single to center field to bring home the winning run.

July 2: The Wright Stuff
Matt Wright came in to relieve a rehabbing John Bale after a few innings against the Oklahoma RedHawks. During the 6th and 7th innings, some vocal regular fans started calling for Wright to come out of the game. Matty's response? He struck out the side in the 8th...in 15 pitches.

August 3-4: The innings-eaters
Omaha picked up two wins in a 4-game series against the Las Vegas 51s before Billy Buckner took the mound for Game 3. The Vegas number 9 hitter had three hits, but none of the other 51s could seem to figure Buckner out. In 8.1 innings, Billy shut them out before coming out in favor of Jason Shiell. Shiell didn't give up any runs either, and I went home excited that I had almost seen one of our guys throw a complete game shutout. The next night, Ben Hendrickson gave me even more to be excited about, as he made it all the way for a CG shutout. In Buckner's almost-all-the-way game, he gave up six hits and walked just one. Hendrickson didn't walk anyone in his game, and only gave up 4 hits. It was a beautiful two days of baseball.

All season: Neal Musser
Neal Musser is a highlight. He's The Guy; the one we could always count on to get anyone and everyone OUT. In 55.1 innings, Musser gave up three earned runs.

Yes. That was three earned runs all season.

There were probably more highlights from this O-Royals season. Aviles and Craig Brazell each had their crazy hot streaks where they each hit multiple homers per game. We had all those extra-inning games, most of which were wins. Royals batters up and down the lineup came up with big hits all the time. Shane Costa had a 19-game hitting streak, and a stretch where he reached base in 30+ games at home. Gathright had all his steals. Mike Jerschele fought umpires and got ejected a bunch. There was that closing weekend with all the crazy extra innings and home run heroics. All told, the O-Royals gave us a hell of a season, and I'm sad it's over.

This might be a good time to point out that the 2008 O-Royals schedule is now available; Opening Day is April 3.

Also...in KC Royals news
It's Banny Time!
People have been talking pretty seriously about my favorite, Brian Bannister, as AL Rookie of the Year.
In this Royals Notes, Connor Nicholl shares some great numbers about Bannister as compared with Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Brian Bannister continues to make a strong case for American League Rookie of the Year honors. After he tossed eight innings of one-run ball Sunday afternoon, Bannister ranks first in rookie ERA (3.16) and trails Daisuke Matsuzaka by one in wins (12).

By one measure, at least, Bannister is currently the best rookie in the American League. According to Baseball Prospectus' Value of Replacement Player (VORP statistic), Bannister stands at 41.9, slightly ahead of Matsuzaka's 41.2.

The numbers alone are pretty telling, especially considering that Banny has that many wins without having worked a full MLB season like Dice-K has. Bannister also doesn't have the luxury of the Boston lineup batting behind him. Furthermore, Dice-K is boring. For all the hype he received in the offseason, watching Dice-K pitch is sure a letdown. He averages about 14 years between pitches, whereas MANnister (as my brothers and I like to call him) works quickly and is easily the most exciting pitcher I've ever watched. Let's keep an eyeball out for this most worthy candidate for the RoY honor. (Not to be confused with the "ROY" in this commercial!)

Every night before I go to bed, I update two stats on the whiteboard in my dorm room: the number of teams who have worse records than KC, and the number of games KC is ahead of the White Sox. Last night's numbers are 9 and 4. Yay?

Random Stats Rundown

I'm a little high on David DeJesus after his lovely catch last night against Torii Hunter, so here is a list of some categories in which DeJesus leads the Royals:
Games (105)
At bats (421)
Runs (75)
Hits (118)
Doubles (24)
Tied - Triples (6, along with Tony Pena Jr. and Mark Teahen)
Total bases (169)
Walks (44)
Hit by pitch (14 - leads the AL)

However, his inability to steal bases takes away that high a little bit, so here are some categories in which he does NOT lead the team:
Home runs (5)
RBI (2nd to Teahen, but DDJ is a leadoff man)
Stolen bases (5)
Stolen base percentage: (55.6%)
OBP (.365)
Slugging percentage (.401)
Batting average (.280)

ROYALS TRIVIA QUESTION: Ryan Shealy, the KC first baseman who is currently rehabbing with the O-Royals, has struck out every ____ ABs in his time with the big-league club this season? (Answer at end of post, and bear in mind that I love Ryan Shealy and am not trying to bash him. It's just a random stats thing.)


Other important Royals stats:
Games behind the White Sox: 1
Games ahead of the Devil Rays (in case of a bizarre league restructuring which would put KC and TB in the same division): 3.5
Number of consecutive winning months KC has had: 2 (for the first time since June-July of 2003!)
MLB teams whose records are equal to or worse than KC: 7
Mustard wins: 20
Relish wins: 19
Ketchup wins: 16

TRIVIA ANSWER: 3.25, but Shealy's bat has warmed up some as he nears the end of his rehab assignment. In his last 10 games with Omaha, Shealy has 11 hits, including 3 doubles and 3 home runs for a .282 average. One of his homers was a grand slam over Colorado Springs on Monday.

By the way...

Last night's Kansas City win was Win #40 on the season.

So I set out to find out how long it took to get to 40 last year. I had forgotten (or repressed? Yeah, probably repressed.) how atrocious the first half and the beginning of the 2nd half were last year. Are you ready for this? The Royals took until the following date to reach 40 wins in '06:

August 9. Yes, really.

Sigh.

It could be worse.

Sure, the Royals got shut out by a pitcher Boston called up from the minors at the last second to replace the hurting Curt Schilling. Sure, Emil Brown could not be bothered to put up two hands to catch a routine fly ball in the 5th*. But things could very much be worse for the 39-53 Royals right now; we could be the Devil Rays (35-56), the Nationals (38-54), the Astros (39-54), the Reds (38-55), or the Giants (38-52).

I am thrilled that typing a list of teams that are worse than KC took as long as it did. This is progress, people! Last year at this time, the Royals were 32-60 and had sole possession of the MLB basement. The closest team to us was Pittsburgh at 33-61.


*I Loooooove seeing Major Leaguers ignore the basics that I taught 9-year-olds in little league. Makes me feel really really good that we pay that much money for those guys to play. But at least Emil gave me a more concrete reason to dislike him as much as I do. Two hands on the ball, folks, or you'll look like that lazy guy.

A bunch of stuffs

A winning month, praise the Lord!
In July 2003, things were pretty good for Royals fans. We had a manager who had ignited a fire under the players and fans alike. Sportswriters had, at least for the moment, quit making fun of our team at every opportunity. There were plenty of reasons to hold hope. July 2003 was a winning month.

Then, Kansas City put up a depressingly impressive 22 months in which they were under .500.

22 months of baseball is a long time. In that time, the Detroit Tigers went from a basement-dwelling laughingstock to a World Series contender who still shows potential to win the toughest division in baseball. The St. Louis Cardinals went from a respectable powerhouse to a team that's double-digit games out of 1st in a much weaker NL Central. 22 months of baseball is a long damn time to keep losing. That's enough time for fans to get disgusted and leave, to pathetically offer up their team loyalty as a commodity on eBay, enough time to grow painfully accustomed to losing and losing and losing.

But lo! With a sweep over the Los Angeles and/or Anaheim Depending on Who is the Bigger and Wealthier Whiner This Season Angels, something KC hadn't done at Anaheim since 1992, the Royals have finally assembled another winning month. And we still have a few games to go before June is over!

It must be some kind of miracle.

AM radio is the best thing ever
The final game of the Royals' series with Anaheim was played at 2:35 here, was not televised, and was not aired on any AM stations (that I could find) in the Omaha area. That was not a problem for most of the game, as I am a subscriber to streaming audio at MLB.com. But then I faced a dilemma: It was time to leave for my first day back at work with the O-Royals in over a month, but the game was not over.

Should I be late to work, even though I had been anticipating my return to the job ever since my dugout-induced brush with disaster? Or should I miss out on the sweet symphony of victory, the kind of moment that keeps me coming back to my Royals? This was a tough one.

WHB to the rescue! The reception brought me more static than voices, but I was able to listen to the bottom of the 9th on my way to Rosenblatt. At one point, there was a dramatic pause in the static, enough of a pause for me to hear that Octavio Dotel had forced a groundout to cap off a perfect inning and seal a sweet 1-0 victory.

As much as I love XM Radio (we have it at my parents' house), I hope AM radio never dies. There is just something comforting about the crackle and hum that provide the backdrop for baseball broadcasts. The sound of a broadcast on AM brings back years of memories of sitting in my bedroom, windows open, radio cranked up. Denny and Fred were as much a part of my household as any of our close friends, as we listened to them call games every day of every summer.

Congratulations to "Craig the Crusher"
In a move that surprises nobody, Craig Brazell of the Omaha Royals was named a representative to the PCL team in the AAA All-Star Game. Brazell leads the minors with 29 homers total, 22 of which have come at the AAA level.

I hate cats
I have always had a distaste for cats, and now there are three in my household. My eyeballs itch.

This morning at about 5:45, one of the cats decided to stand on my stomach, which woke me up. I eventually got back to sleep, but it took a while. When I finally decided to roll out of futon (I don't have a bed) a few hours later, I found that the back door had come open and the other two cats had gotten out, so I had to go get them.

That is all for now, as I have to go brave the bats (not the wooden kind) in my basement and finish some laundry...

RSTN, part II

About a month ago, I posted some findings regarding whether Kansas City played better when they were on TV than they did when they were not televised. I found that they did indeed have a higher winning percentage in televised games. This was as of May 30:

When Royals games are televised on RSTN (including games that are aired only on Channel 38 in KC), their winning percentage is .400, compared to a .214 winning percentage when they're not on TV and an overall .352 wpc. It took them until May 17 to win a game that was not televised. Tomorrow night's game will be televised, so I have some hope that the losing streak will end.

Today I'm bored and not working, so I repeated the research, then took it a little further. Here's what I found:

The Royals are still winning more when they're on television. Their win percentage when they're on either RSTN or Channel 38 in KC is .452, compared to just a .200 wpc when they're not televised. Since I last looked at these stats, the Royals have not won a non-televised game (though they've played only one). Their overall win percentage right now is .403.

Furthermore, the Royals avergae more hits and more runs per game when they're in front of the cameras.

Average hits/game
Not on TV: 7.8
On TV: 9.1
Overall: 8.9


Average runs/game
Not on TV: 3.3
On TV: 4.6
Overall: 4.4

The number of runs they allowed was the only one which has been worse on TV, as opponents score 5.2 runs on KC during televised games, and only 5.1 per game without TV.

You now have learned a few things:
RSTN still helps the Royals win.*
RSTN still makes the Royals get more hits.*
I have way too much free time on my hands.** If only I took homework this seriously.

*I know that correlation is not the same as causation. But when you're a Royals fan, you have to clutch on to anything that seems to help boost that winning percentage.
**Not to worry; I'm returning to work for the O-Royals tomorrow. Is my ankle ready? Probably not. Am I pumped anyway? You betcha!